Trump, Truth, and Confirmation Bias

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rorschach-fantasy-1617886_660x395I’ve been retired from active politics for more than two decades. In that time, I’ve focused on my primary business – picking winning stocks and avoiding losing stocks. It’s almost impossible to bat a thousand doing this, but I believe (and hope I’ve demonstrated) there’s a way to increase your odds.

Shortly after I left the political realm, I began in earnest to take on the financial industry establishment. (Truth be told, as readers of my initial run as publisher of The Sentinel know, I actually started this years before.) As a new firm, I had to find a position that differentiated our services from our competitors. Taking on the establishment wasn’t a rebel yell, it was a marketing imperative. Quite simply, no new business can survive if it Continue Reading “Trump, Truth, and Confirmation Bias”

Will Bush Use the No-Huddle?

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the February 7, 1991 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259The following might have been more apparent if the Buffalo Bills would have won the Superbowl, but the concept holds nonetheless.

In the week prior to each of the three playoff games in which the Buffalo Bills participated, sports reporters from across the nation asked Head Coach Marv Levy if he intended to use his quick scoring no-huddle offense from the outset. With a poker face, Levy regularly answered, Continue Reading “Will Bush Use the No-Huddle?”

Goodbye My Leather Jacket

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the December 13, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259It came to me in a plain brown cardboard box as I prepared to catch a midday flight to Washington DC four years ago. The dark brown many-pocketed WWII Bombardier’s Flight Jacket had caught my eyes a few weeks before. I really didn’t expect it to arrive before I left for the political conference. Imagine my joy when the UPS truck pulled up into my driveway.

Since my earliest days the spirit and the zest of the fighter jock secretly boiled far down within my soul. To counter this inner desire lay a cautious sense of responsibility. Yet, I could not deny deep-seated feelings. I knew, just like most people, I had undertaken some “daring” adventures. While not life threatening, these encounters certainly Continue Reading “Goodbye My Leather Jacket”

The New Pearl Harbor

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the December 6, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259Thirty-nine years ago, the United States government misinterpreted some very clear signals being sent by the Japanese. Depending on your point of view, a very naïve or very calculating Franklin Delano Roosevelt failed to prepare for the growing military aggression Japan would soon unleash upon an unsuspecting United States.

In his best-selling book At Dawn We Slept, Gordon W. Prange maintains the Japanese should have never surprised the Continue Reading “The New Pearl Harbor”

Taxes, Social Spending and Recessions

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the September 27, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259There’s a demon looming on the horizon. It hasn’t been around for a long, long time, but it’s there. People have been talking about it for a few years, though it remains just beyond the edge of our view. Some folks have even said it’s been seen, yet only by limited regions of the country and only for a short time.

Nobody knows how bad this demon will be. Nobody’s even sure if the demon will show its face. Still others will argue the demon stands in our midst now.

The evil has an evil aura about it. People fear the very thought of it, even those who Continue Reading “Taxes, Social Spending and Recessions”

The Great Tax Battle of 1990 – Winner #2: The Democrats

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the July 26, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

Part two in a series discussing the ramifications of the announcement in June by President Bush to increase tax revenues.

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259In the spirit of last week, let’s begin with some expository gibberish which permits the reader to know exactly where I stand:

I grew up in the heart of a Democrat stronghold in the shadows of an old fashioned blue collar steel mill. All that was fair, all that was honest was taught to me by my grandparents and their friends in the name of FDR. All that was innovative, all that was accomplished by youthful zest was brought to me by my parents and their friends in the name of JFK.

Of course, my elders rendered these common sense philosophies without the burden of Continue Reading “The Great Tax Battle of 1990 – Winner #2: The Democrats”

The Great Tax Battle of 1990 – Winner #1: George Bush

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the July 19, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259Let’s get one thing out quickly. I don’t like taxes. I don’t think the government does a good job spending our money. When it comes to the national budget, I think I could make better decisions in three minutes than some Washington Bureaucrat can make after a three year study. I hate taxes. I believe they suck the blood from an otherwise vigorous nation.

Of course, I am rational enough to realize the government must provide services (like Continue Reading “The Great Tax Battle of 1990 – Winner #1: George Bush”

Mendon Water Tower Redux

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the June 14, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

 

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259You can look elsewhere in this paper for a report on the June 7 meeting between concerned Mendon citizens and the Monroe County Water Authority (MCWA). The following merely comments on those proceedings in as fair and unbiased a fashion one can expect from a resident of Mendon.

The meeting last Thursday night showed a few interesting things. First, it looks like everyone agrees we’ve got a water problem in southeast Mendon. Second, those Continue Reading “Mendon Water Tower Redux”

D.C. Turf Wars

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the June 7, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

 

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currently has regulatory responsibility for stock index futures. The Bush administration recently announced plans to introduce legislation shifting control to the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Both Investor’s Daily and The Wall Street Journal have faithfully presented both sides of the debate.

The critical questions, however, relate not to who’s in charge, but to the impetus behind the territorial maneuvering. In analyzing the 1987 stock market crash, official Washington, the news media and even some well respected financial gurus have blamed stock index futures – in particular their use in program trading – for the Continue Reading “D.C. Turf Wars”

The Amazing FETA!

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[This Commentary originally appeared in the April 5, 1990 issue of The Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel.]

CarosaCommentaryNewLogo_259From our nation’s capital we hear many discouraging words on the American economy. A plethora of ideas have sprouted from the mouths of elected officials. Some have been good, some have been bad. All have been aimed more at solving personal political problems than at curing any one economic ill.

All parties clearly point to the nation’s low savings rate as one of the primary causes of our weakened economy. They suggest if individuals would save more and consume less, more money could be used to Continue Reading “The Amazing FETA!”